ebook vs print book sales

Some of the most depressing sessions I attended at BEA (Book Expo America) this week were the ones where people tried to convince each other that print is not dead. I don't think it is dead but the way, but there is no doubt it is in decline. The people on the panels however seemed to try to convince me of print's relevance in a way that just made the picture sound even more bleak. They touted "specialty books" like those contained in a potato chip bag, or a cookbook that is encased in Lucite and sells for $600+. Some tried to convince me that books were the "best" format of the printed word as they last for hundreds of years, need no power source, can be read during take off and landing, and can be read in direct sunlight.

I love printed books, but I also love having a hundred on my device at one time. The next time I move, I'll be grateful that I won't have several hundred more books to pack and unpack. But most importantly I love the fact that when I finish one great book and want another that I can just click a button and not have to rely on the UPS man or getting in my car to drive to the bookstore.

For those who have not kept up on "the facts" about the decline here is some recent data:

• July 2010 Amazon sold more kindle books than hardcovers
• January 2011 Amazon sold more kindle books than paperbacks
• May 2011 Amazon sold more kindle books than paperback and hardcover combined
• Year end 2010 AAP numbers had ebook sales at 8.3% of total trade sales
• February 2011 AAP numbers had ebook sales at 29.5% of total trade sale - higher than any other category (hardcover, mass market, trade paperback)
  

I was really looking forward to hard and fast numbers from BEA and the report I was looking most forward to was one done by BISG (Book Industry Study Group) and AAP (Association of American Publishers) that took data from 1,100 publishers over a two year period.

Alas, the report will not be published until JULY!! There was good news from the preliminary data however, it seems that publishing has found the bottom (2008) and is starting to climb up out of it (last 2 years have shown growth).

Michael's agent asked me at lunch how long before ebooks outsell all print. She was hoping for five years I said two -- though I think I'll be wrong and it could be as soon as 14 months. We'll see and keep you posted.